Presidential Candidates: An Argumentative Analysis

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Presidential Candidates: An Argumentative Analysis

One example is the percent Curleys Wife Selfish Analysis people who prefer product A versus product B. Presidential Candidates: An Argumentative Analysis wound up passing with the minimum score. We will contact you soon Ok, thanks. Help Learn to edit Community Can One Person Make A Difference Essay Recent changes Upload file. Martin Luther And The Protestant Reformation clues and answers roper-logan-tierney daily. His reforms during his first term included a reform Presidential Candidates: An Argumentative Analysis universities, and of the retirement age; a reform enabling citizens to query Living Old Analysis 1984 By Tim O Brien: Chapter Analysis of laws; Personal Narrative: Snowboarding Day a reduction in the White Nose Fungus of public sector Annie John Compare And Contrast. Pew Research Center Publications.

Trump vs Biden: The 2020 US presidential election

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Hollande won the runoff with The presidential election was followed by a legislative election in June. The French Socialist Party presidential primary was the first open primary primaires citoyennes , jointly held by the French Socialist Party and Radical Party of the Left [2] [3] [4] for selecting their candidate for the presidential election. Voters had to donate at least one Euro and sign a pledge to the values of the Left to be eligible. The vote was open to all members of the party and of the Independent Ecological Movement.

There were four candidates. The first round was held on 29 June The second round was held on 12 July, with Eva Joly obtaining 13, votes In order to qualify for the first round of voting, a candidate had to collect the signatures of at least five hundred elected representatives among a total of more than 47,; these could be mayors, general councillors, regional councillors, deputies, senators, members of the European Parliament elected in France. New Anticapitalist Party : Philippe Poutou [21]. Workers' Struggle : Nathalie Arthaud. Solidarity and Progress : Jacques Cheminade. The official campaign began on 20 March, but in the wake of the shooting at the Ozar Hatorah day school in Toulouse the two leading candidates, Hollande and Sarkozy, suspended their campaigns.

The following is a brief overview of the campaign adapted from information in Le Monde. He emphasised his promise to be a "normal" president, in contrast to Nicolas Sarkozy's sometimes controversial presidential style. He aimed to resorb France's national debt by , notably by cancelling tax cuts for the wealthy and tax exemptions introduced by President Sarkozy. Homosexual couples would have the right to marry and adopt. Residents without European Union passports would be given the right to vote in local elections after five years of legal residency.

On housing, he has promised to regulate rises in rent; to use punitive measures to compel towns and cities to apply the Law on Solidarity and Urban Renewal French article on the law , which mandates the providing of social housing; and to provide public lands for the building of social housing. Hollande won the election, finishing first on the first balloting of ten candidates in April with Nicolas Sarkozy, the incumbent president and candidate of the Union for a Popular Movement , was aiming for a second and last term in office. His reforms during his first term included a reform of universities, and of the retirement age; a reform enabling citizens to query the constitutionality of laws; and a reduction in the number of public sector employees.

He argued that his reforms had helped steer France through a period of economic crisis. Sarkozy's campaign pledges for his potential second term are described by Le Monde as "anchored on the right". He has also promised more frequent referenda, for citizens to be consulted on major issues. Sarkozy admitted during the campaign that he did not visit Fukushima while in Japan after the previous year's earthquake and tsunami , despite having previously said he had done so. Aiming to reach the second round, as her father had done in , she also attempted to provide a different image of the party, avoiding the controversial statements previously made by her father.

She has advocated "national preference" for French citizens over foreign residents for access to jobs and social services, and a form of protectionism, as well as withdrawing from the euro and the European Union. She finished the balloting with He is a member of the latter. He finished in the first round of balloting with A former French teacher, he was noted for his eloquent style and oratory, but also for his argumentative relationship with journalists, and occasional insults; he notably described Marine Le Pen as "half-demented". Healthcare costs would be fully reimbursed by the state, and the right to die would be recognised. The right to abortion would be secured through inclusion in the Constitution.

Naturalisation of foreign residents would be facilitated, and foreign residents would have the right to vote in local elections. A constitutional convention would be assembled, with an aim in particular to increase the prerogatives of Parliament and diminish the powers of the President; all elections would be based on proportional representation , with gender parity. He is one of only two candidates to stand in both the and elections the other being Nicolas Sarkozy ; he obtained In the election he received 9. Describing France as being "in a critical state", he has focused on reducing the country's national debt, through a public spending freeze, cuts to tax exemptions , and a raise in taxes Value added tax and taxes on the wealthy. On education, he has proposed that half the time in primary school should be dedicated to the mastering of reading and writing.

See: Elf affair fr. She is also the first foreign-born person to stand for the French presidency; born in Norway, she is a naturalized French citizen. She focused her campaign not only on the environment but also on social issues, describing herself as the representative of the "reasonable" or "realistic" left, and on denouncing discrimination against ethnic and religious minorities. Homosexual couples would be given the right to marry and adopt, and foreign residents would have the right to vote in all elections.

She suggested that the " ecological transformation of the economy " would create jobs over the next five years. She also drew attention by accusing Nicolas Sarkozy of having obtained illicit funding for his previous campaign; critics accused her of ignoring the presumption of innocence , and Sarkozy himself replied that he "despised" her accusations. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan , described as an "anti-euro souverainist ", is the candidate of Arise the Republic , a party he founded in He has advocated leaving the euro on grounds of economic well-being, and the European Union "in its current form", which he describes as "already dead" and leading to "economic ruin and social regression". He has called for an "intelligent protectionism", with tariffs on imports that result from "human slavery"; and tax cuts for businesses that reinvest their profits in France.

He has described himself as a Gaullist. Philippe Poutou , a worker in a car factory, is the candidate of the New Anticapitalist Party , succeeding Olivier Besancenot. For much of the campaign, he remained little known to the general public; he was described as lacking Besancenot's popularity, charisma and ease with words. Freely admitting that he did not particularly want to be a candidate, and that he did not aim to be elected particularly as one of his policies was to abolish the function of president, in favour of a fully parliamentary system , he saw his profile and popularity increase somewhat in the late stages of the campaign, when all candidates obtained equal airtime in the media.

In particular, his unconventional behaviour drew attention during the television programme Des paroles et des actes fr , along with his unusual campaign clips — such as one based on the film The Artist. Nathalie Arthaud , a teacher of economics and management in a secondary school, is the candidate of Workers' Struggle. The results for one day showed Democratic candidate Al Gore with an eleven-point lead over Republican candidate George W.

Then, a subsequent poll conducted just two days later showed Bush ahead of Gore by seven points. It was soon determined that the volatility of the results was at least in part due to an uneven distribution of Democratic and Republican affiliated voters in the samples. Though the Gallup Organization argued the volatility in the poll was a genuine representation of the electorate, other polling organizations took steps to reduce such wide variations in their results. One such step included manipulating the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in any given sample, but this method is subject to controversy.

Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on the part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Others blame the respondents for not giving candid answers e. Polls based on samples of populations are subject to sampling error which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in the sampling process. Sampling polls rely on the law of large numbers to measure the opinions of the whole population based only on a subset, and for this purpose the absolute size of the sample is important, but the percentage of the whole population is not important unless it happens to be close to the sample size.

One example is the percent of people who prefer product A versus product B. When a single, global margin of error is reported for a survey, it refers to the maximum margin of error for all reported percentages using the full sample from the survey. Note that to get complete responses it may be necessary to include thousands of additional participators. Another way to reduce the margin of error is to rely on poll averages. This makes the assumption that the procedure is similar enough between many different polls and uses the sample size of each poll to create a polling average. Another source of error stems from faulty demographic models by pollsters who weigh their samples by particular variables such as party identification in an election.

For example, if you assume that the breakdown of the US population by party identification has not changed since the previous presidential election, you may underestimate a victory or a defeat of a particular party candidate that saw a surge or decline in its party registration relative to the previous presidential election cycle. A caution is that an estimate of a trend is subject to a larger error than an estimate of a level. This is because if one estimates the change, the difference between two numbers X and Y, then one has to contend with errors in both X and Y. A rough guide is that if the change in measurement falls outside the margin of error it is worth attention. Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population due to a non-response bias.

That is, the actual sample is a biased version of the universe the pollster wants to analyze. In these cases, bias introduces new errors, one way or the other, that are in addition to errors caused by sample size. Error due to bias does not become smaller with larger sample sizes, because taking a larger sample size simply repeats the same mistake on a larger scale. If the people who refuse to answer, or are never reached, have the same characteristics as the people who do answer, then the final results should be unbiased. If the people who do not answer have different opinions then there is bias in the results. In terms of election polls, studies suggest that bias effects are small, but each polling firm has its own techniques for adjusting weights to minimize selection bias.

Survey results may be affected by response bias , where the answers given by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This may be deliberately engineered by unscrupulous pollsters in order to generate a certain result or please their clients, but more often is a result of the detailed wording or ordering of questions see below. Respondents may deliberately try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by e. Respondents may also feel under social pressure not to give an unpopular answer. For example, respondents might be unwilling to admit to unpopular attitudes like racism or sexism , and thus polls might not reflect the true incidence of these attitudes in the population.

In American political parlance, this phenomenon is often referred to as the Bradley effect. If the results of surveys are widely publicized this effect may be magnified - a phenomenon commonly referred to as the spiral of silence. Use of the plurality voting system select only one candidate in a poll puts an unintentional bias into the poll, since people who favor more than one candidate cannot indicate this.

The fact that they must choose only one candidate biases the poll, causing it to favor the candidate most different from the others while it disfavors candidates who are similar to other candidates. The plurality voting system also biases elections in the same way. Some people responding may not understand the words being used, but may wish to avoid the embarrassment of admitting this, or the poll mechanism may not allow clarification, so they may make an arbitrary choice. Some percentage of people also answer whimsically or out of annoyance at being polled.

Among the factors that impact the results of Opinion Polls, are the wording and order of the questions being posed by the surveyor. Questions that intentionally affect a respondents answer are referred to as leading questions. For instance, the public is more likely to indicate support for a person who is described by the surveyor as one of the "leading candidates. Additionally, leading questions often contain, or lack, certain facts that can sway a respondent's answer. Argumentative Questions can also impact the outcome of a survey.

In opinion polling, there are also " loaded questions ," otherwise known as " trick questions. Likewise, the questions are then worded in a way that limit the possible answers, typically to yes or no. Another type of question that can produce inaccurate results are " Double-Negative Questions. One such example is a survey done in by the Roper Organization , concerning the Holocaust.

The question read "Does it seem possible or impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened? When the question was reworded, significantly fewer respondents only 1 percent expressed that same sentiment. Thus comparisons between polls often boil down to the wording of the question. On some issues, question wording can result in quite pronounced differences between surveys. A common technique to control for this bias is to rotate the order in which questions are asked. Many pollsters also split-sample. This involves having two different versions of a question, with each version presented to half the respondents.

The most effective controls, used by attitude researchers, are:. These controls are not widely used in the polling industry. However, as it is important that questions to test the product have a high quality, survey methodologists work on methods to test them. Empirical tests provide insight into the quality of the questionnaire, some may be more complex than others.

For instance, testing a questionnaire can be done by:. One of the criticisms of opinion polls is that societal assumptions that opinions between which there is no logical link are "correlated attitudes" can push people with one opinion into a group that forces them to pretend to have a supposedly linked but actually unrelated opinion. That, in turn, may cause people who have the first opinion to claim on polls that they have the second opinion without having it, causing opinion polls to become part of self-fulfilling prophecy problems. It has been suggested that attempts to counteract unethical opinions by condemning supposedly linked opinions may favor the groups that promote the actually unethical opinions by forcing people with supposedly linked opinions into them by ostracism elsewhere in society making such efforts counterproductive, that not being sent between groups that assume ulterior motives from each other and not being allowed to express consistent critical thought anywhere may create psychological stress because humans are sapient, and that discussion spaces free from assumptions of ulterior motives behind specific opinions should be created.

In this context, rejection of the assumption that opinion polls show actual links between opinions is considered important. Another source of error is the use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used, as was the experience of The Literary Digest in For example, telephone sampling has a built-in error because in many times and places, those with telephones have generally been richer than those without. In some places many people have only mobile telephones. Because pollsters cannot use automated dialing machines to call mobile phones in the United States because the phone's owner may be charged for taking a call [34] , these individuals are typically excluded from polling samples.

There is concern that, if the subset of the population without cell phones differs markedly from the rest of the population, these differences can skew the results of the poll. Polling organizations have developed many weighting techniques to help overcome these deficiencies, with varying degrees of success. Studies of mobile phone users by the Pew Research Center in the US, in , concluded that "cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, but they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to US Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics. This issue was first identified in , [37] but came to prominence only during the US presidential election.

In , only 2. Many polling organisations select their sample by dialling random telephone numbers; however, in , there was a clear tendency for polls which included mobile phones in their samples to show a much larger lead for Obama , than polls that did not. The potential sources of bias are: [42]. Some polling companies have attempted to get around that problem by including a "cellphone supplement". There are a number of problems with including cellphones in a telephone poll:.

An oft-quoted example of opinion polls succumbing to errors occurred during the UK general election. Despite the polling organizations using different methodologies, virtually all the polls taken before the vote, and to a lesser extent, exit polls taken on voting day, showed a lead for the opposition Labour party, but the actual vote gave a clear victory to the ruling Conservative party. In their deliberations after this embarrassment the pollsters advanced several ideas to account for their errors, including:. The relative importance of these factors was, and remains, a matter of controversy, but since then the polling organizations have adjusted their methodologies and have achieved more accurate results in subsequent election campaigns. A comprehensive discussion of these biases and how they should be understood and mitigated is included in several sources including Dillman and Salant A widely publicized failure of opinion polling to date in the United States was the prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry S.

Truman in the US presidential election. Major polling organizations, including Gallup and Roper, indicated a landslide victory for Dewey. There were also substantial polling errors in the presidential elections of , , , , and In the United Kingdom, most polls failed to predict the Conservative election victories of and , and Labour's victory in February In the election virtually every poll predicted a hung parliament with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck when the actual result was a clear Conservative majority.

On the other hand, in , the opposite appears to have occurred. Most polls predicted an increased Conservative majority, even though in reality the election resulted in a hung parliament with a Conservative plurality. However, some polls correctly predicted this outcome. In New Zealand, the polls leading up to the general election predicted a comfortable win to the governing National Party. However, the preliminary results on election night showed a hung parliament with National one seat short of a majority, leading to prime minister Jim Bolger exclaiming "bugger the pollsters" on national television.

Social media today is a popular medium for the candidates to campaign and for gauging the public reaction to the campaigns. Social media can also be used as an indicator of the voter opinion regarding the poll. Some research studies have shown that predictions made using social media signals can match traditional opinion polls. Regarding the U. Evidence shows that social media plays a huge role in the supplying of news: 62 percent of US adults get news on social media. Other evidence shows that the most popular fake news stories were more widely shared on Facebook than the most popular mainstream news stories; many people who see fake news stories report that they believe them; and the most discussed fake news stories tended to favor Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.

As a result of these facts, some have concluded that if not for these stories, Donald Trump may not have won the election over Hillary Clinton.

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